A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
